Younger adults are leaving Canada’s most expensive cities at a rapid rate, according to Statistics Canada data.
The latest intraprovincial migration numbers show that the number of people leaving the cities for different parts of the province is accelerating, especially amongst the millennial demographic. Millennials are a demographic that will be entering their prime earning and home-buying years soon, so this is not a positive trend to be witnessing.
The total change of people that left the city for another part of the province is called the net intraprovincial migration. For example, if someone from rural Ontario moves to Toronto, and no one leaves Toronto, the net intraprovincial migration is one. If one person moves to Ontario, and three people from Toronto move to Hamilton, the net intraprovincial migration is minus-2. The ideal scenario is that a region attracts more people from other parts of the province than they lose. This number is different from immigration, but is just as important.
Getting people to move to a city is a positive thing, but it’s even better to retain the people who are already living there. At the end of the day, cities are built to sustain people’s lives and not to serve as a marketing tool for attracting new residents who may be disappointed once they arrive. A major change in the intraprovincial migration numbers could be indicating that there is an underlying problem not being addressed or reflected in current government stats.
142,000 people leave Toronto for other parts of Ontario
Toronto’s net intraprovincial migration numbers have been plummeting. Between 2012 to 2017, the net intraprovincial migration was minus-142,465, which is a 77 percent greater loss than the period before. This means that over 142,000 more people left Toronto for other parts of the province than Toronto attracted. This loss is happening much faster than the rate of population growth. It’s clear that what’s happening is that more people are leaving Toronto for cheaper parts of Ontario.
When we look at the age breakdown of those who are leaving, the 20 to 34 year old age bracket saw a net decline over 300 per cent larger than the period before.
To compare, the 35- to 49-year age bracket saw a net decline around 48 percent larger than the period before. Toronto is losing young people at a very rapid pace, to other parts of the province.
B.C.’s Lower Mainland area (including Vancouver) loses over 18,000 people to other parts of the province
The Lower Mainland, the most densely populated part of British Columbia, is also losing people, though faring a bit better than Toronto.
From 2012 to 2017 the region saw a net migration of minus-18,670 people, a loss that was 180 percent greater than the period before. Though the number seems relatively small, B.C. is a province with a much smaller population than Greater Toronto. The net loss to other regions represents a huge increase.
As with Toronto, more people are leaving Lower Mainland for cheaper parts of British Columbia. Two interesting demographics are changing in the province. To start, seniors represent the largest loss with the 65-plus demographic showing a net migration of minus-2,575, a whopping 344 percent more people compared to the previous period.
Secondly, the millennial demographic of 20-to-34 year olds saw net intraprovincial migration reach minus-139, a 103 percent decrease from the period before. This demographic was previously the only demographic not in decline across the region.
It is ironic that the regions of Vancouver and Toronto spend huge amounts of cash to attract millennials. Theoretically, at this point in their lives, millennials should be putting down roots and entering their prime earning years. Retaining millennials is typically a win for both the local economy, as well as birth rates in the region. Any savvy business person knows that it’s cheaper to retain an existing customer than it is to attract a new one. Perhaps it’s time for politicians to take a page from that book?