After three years of falling or flat prices, the question everyone in BC real estate is asking is whether 2027 brings a turn. Nobody knows, and anyone who sounds certain is guessing. What we can do is show where prices actually are, how balanced the market is, what the main forecasters expect, and what would have to happen for the market to move either way. The chart above updates every month from the MLS® Home Price Index.
Where prices are now
| Area, all homes | Benchmark, Aug 2026 | 1 year | From peak | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Vancouver | $1,081,900 | −5.6% | −13.6% | +6.6% |
| Fraser Valley | $869,900 | −7.2% | −26.9% | +27.3% |
| Chilliwack and district | $704,600 | −5.2% | −22.6% | +70.9% |
| Victoria | $887,300 | +0.8% | −8.7% | +64.1% |
| Vancouver Island (outside Victoria) | $701,500 | +0.2% | −5.8% | +111.1% |
| BC Interior | $665,600 | +0.5% | −8.5% | +69.2% |
Two markets are telling different stories.
- The Lower Mainland is still adjusting. Greater Vancouver is down about 14% from its peak, and the Fraser Valley, which ran up hardest during the pandemic, is down about 27%.
- Vancouver Island and the Interior have been roughly flat for a year, within 6% to 9% of their peaks.
How balanced the market is
The sales-to-active listings ratio, meaning sales in a month as a share of homes for sale, is the best single measure of who has the upper hand. Greater Vancouver REALTORS® notes that prices tend to come under downward pressure below 12% and upward pressure above 20%.
- Metro Vancouver, August 2026: 12.3% overall. By type, 9.6% for detached, 15.1% for townhouses and attached, and 13.7% for apartments. There were 15,798 homes for sale, 26% above the 10-year average for the month.
- Fraser Valley: about 10%, with listings 33% above average.
So detached houses and the Fraser Valley are in buyer's market territory. Condos and townhouses in Metro Vancouver are close to balanced, which is why their prices have held up better this year.
What the forecasters expect
- BCREA (BC Real Estate Association). Its spring 2026 forecast expected provincial sales to fall about 2% in 2026, then rise 7.7% in 2027 to 74,000, with the biggest gains in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. It expected the BC average price to fall 1.4% in 2026, to $939,800. Its mid-year update trimmed the 2026 sales decline to about 1%. It pointed to high inventory, including unsold new homes, as the main brake on prices, and pent-up demand plus improved affordability as the case for a rebound.
- CMHC. It expects Vancouver resales to recover moderately from the slowest pace in more than 20 years, but to stay below the 10-year average through 2028. It flagged newer condos south of the Fraser as possibly needing further price adjustments. It also expects more condo projects to be postponed or cancelled, and limited rent growth.
- Greater Vancouver REALTORS®. In August 2026, it said sales had lagged its January forecast since May, and that it had revised its 2026 forecast down.
Read together: most forecasters expect sales to recover before prices do. Price forecasts cluster around small moves in either direction, not a crash or a boom.
What will decide 2027
- Interest rates. The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting in September 2026, and markets priced the next move as a rise. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, which rose over the summer. Lower rates would bring buyers back quickly. Higher ones would extend the slump.
- Supply. Active listings are at their highest in a decade, and a wave of completed, unsold condos is competing with resales. Cancelled and postponed projects cut future supply, but not until late 2027 and beyond.
- Population. Growth has slowed sharply since the federal government capped temporary residents, which reduces rental and entry-level demand.
- Renewals. Many 2021-era mortgages renew at higher rates through 2026, which pressures some owners to sell. Arrears remain low so far. See the renewal calculator.
- Policy. BC's speculation and vacancy tax rises for foreign owners in 2027. Small-scale multiplex and transit-oriented zoning is gradually adding supply. The federal ban on foreign buyers is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, unless it's extended.
What it means for buyers
In most Lower Mainland segments, buyers have more choice and more negotiating room than at any time since 2019. Subject-free bidding wars are rare outside the best-priced listings.
Trying to time the bottom is hard. Benchmarks move slowly, and by the time a turn shows in the data, the best-priced homes have already sold. What matters more is buying a home you can carry through a renewal at higher rates, in a building or street you'd be happy to own for years.
Start with the affordability calculator and the rent vs buy calculator.
What it means for sellers
Price to today's comparable sales and active competition, not to the 2022 peak or your assessment. Most 2026 assessments reflect July 2025 values, which in much of the region were above today's prices.
If you're selling and buying in the same market, the softness cuts both ways. A lower sale price usually means a lower purchase price too. See the seller's guide for pricing strategy in a buyer's market.
Will prices crash?
The data so far describes a slow, orderly correction, not a crash. Prices in Greater Vancouver have fallen about 14% over four years, arrears are low, and most owners have substantial equity.
The things that would turn a correction into a sharp fall would be:
- a jump in unemployment
- a big rise in rates
- a wave of forced selling
None of those is in the forecasts, but none is impossible. Watch the sales-to-active ratio and new listings each month. They move before prices do.
Questions people ask us
Will Vancouver house prices go down in 2027?
Forecasters expect small moves rather than big ones. BCREA's spring 2026 forecast had the BC average price down 1.4% in 2026 and sales recovering in 2027, while CMHC expects Vancouver resales to recover slowly and stay below average through 2028. Rates, supply and population growth will decide the direction.
How much have Vancouver home prices dropped?
As of August 2026, the Greater Vancouver composite benchmark was $1,081,900, about 5.6% lower than a year earlier and about 13.6% below its April 2022 peak. The Fraser Valley benchmark was about 27% below its peak.
Is it a buyer's market in Vancouver?
For detached houses, yes. Their sales-to-active listings ratio was 9.6% in August 2026, below the 12% level associated with falling prices. Townhouses at 15.1% and apartments at 13.7% were closer to balanced.
Is it a good time to buy in Vancouver?
Buyers have more choice and negotiating room than at any time since 2019. Timing the bottom is hard, so focus on a home you can afford through a renewal at higher rates and would keep for years.
What is the BCREA housing forecast for 2027?
BCREA's spring 2026 forecast expected BC home sales to rise 7.7% in 2027, to 74,000 units, with the strongest gains in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. It expected the average price to fall 1.4% in 2026. Check BCREA's latest quarterly forecast for updates.
What is a benchmark price?
The estimated price of a typical home with constant features in an area, from the MLS® Home Price Index. Because the features are held constant, it tracks the market more reliably than averages or medians, which move with the mix of homes that sold.
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Want the numbers for your street?
Benchmarks cover whole regions. Dan can pull recent sales and active competition for your building or street, and tell you what they mean for buying or selling now.
