Vancouver Housing Market Predictions for 2027: What BCREA, CMHC, CREA and RBC Forecast

Four major forecasters have published numbers for 2027, and none of them is calling a boom or a crash for Greater Vancouver. The most bullish, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), has Greater Vancouver's average sale price up 3.3% in 2027. The most cautious, RBC, has BC prices up 0.5%.

That's the whole range: roughly flat to a little over 3%. Sales are where they expect the real change, with BCREA calling a 10.6% jump in Greater Vancouver sales next year.

I don't make forecasts. What I can do is put the named ones side by side, check how their 2026 calls are holding up against nine months of actual board data, and tell you what I'd do with that. Every number below links to its source.

Sources: BCREA Housing Forecast, April 2026; CMHC Housing Market Outlook, summer update, July 2026; CREA quarterly forecast, July 2026; RBC Economics Home Resale and Price Forecast, September 2026; Greater Vancouver Realtors, September 2026 stats package.

The 2027 forecasts, side by side

One warning before the table: these four don't measure the same thing. BCREA and CREA forecast the average MLS® sale price, which moves with the mix of what sells (more condos sold means a lower average). RBC forecasts an aggregate price from a different data provider. CMHC covers the Vancouver census metro area, which isn't the same map as either real estate board. So compare the direction and size of each call, not the dollar figures across rows.

Sources: BCREA Housing Forecast, April 2026; CMHC Housing Market Outlook, summer update, July 2026; CREA quarterly forecast, July 2026; RBC Economics Home Resale and Price Forecast, September 2026 (CREA provincial figures from its forecast data file). CMHC percentages are calculated by EstateBlock from CMHC's published levels; 2026 changes are against CMHC's 2025 actuals, 2027 changes against the matching 2026 forecast. CMHC's forecasts use data up to June 23, 2026.

For Greater Vancouver itself, the two calls are close: BCREA at +3.3% and CMHC at +2.9% in its baseline. CMHC also publishes a downside scenario, and in that one Vancouver's average price barely moves in 2027 (+0.9%) and slips again in 2028 to $1.15M. CMHC's summary of the whole country: prices are expected to decline through 2026 and then grow only modestly afterward.

The province-wide numbers are lower, especially from CREA (+0.8%) and RBC (+0.5%). CREA's July note says gains are expected to be held to below inflation pretty much across the board. Put plainly: the national realtors' association itself expects home prices to lose ground to inflation in 2027.

Sales are a different story. Every forecaster expects more transactions in 2027, and for Greater Vancouver the calls are big: BCREA +10.6% to 26,000 sales, CMHC +11.8% in its baseline. My read: that's what a recovery usually looks like at first. Buyers who've been waiting come back before prices move much.

Keep the starting point in mind, though. GVR's September 2026 sales were 25% below the 10-year average for the month, so a 10.6% rise from here would still be a slow year by long-run standards.

How the 2026 calls are holding up

The best test of a forecaster's 2027 number is how its 2026 number is doing. We have nine months of board data now.

From January to September, GVR recorded 16,976 sales, −6.0% on the same months of 2025. BCREA's April forecast called for a 0.9% drop for the full year, to 23,500. To get there, October to December would need 6,524 sales. The same three months of 2025 had 5,638 (as first reported), so Q4 2026 would have to beat last year by about 16%. June was the only month this year that beat 2025. I'd call BCREA's 2026 sales number for Greater Vancouver optimistic.

The Fraser Valley is closer. FVREB's 8,742 sales through September are −5.5% on last year, against BCREA's full-year forecast of −4.5%. Slightly behind, but within reach.

Sources: BCREA Housing Forecast, April 2026; GVR and FVREB monthly stats packages, January to September 2026. Year-to-date totals are from each board’s September 2026 package (GVR: its January–September figures for detached, attached and apartment sales added together; FVREB: its year-to-date grand total). Q4 2025 is the sum of GVR’s October–December 2025 releases as first published. The average price and the MLS® HPI benchmark are different measures, so the price rows show direction, not an exact miss.

On prices the direction is clear even if the measures differ. BCREA expected Greater Vancouver's average price to slip 2.4% this year. The GVR composite benchmark, which tracks a typical home rather than whatever happened to sell, is down 5.5% from September 2025 and, as first published, has fallen in 10 of the last 12 monthly releases. In the Fraser Valley the benchmark is down 7.2% against a forecast of 4.4%.

BCREA did flag this risk itself. Its April report says Metro Vancouver in particular may see some downward pressure on prices, and that Lower Mainland inventory had reached its highest level in over a decade. The downward pressure turned out to be bigger than its table assumed. That's worth remembering when you read its +3.3% for 2027: it starts from a 2026 that's running softer than planned.

What the forecasts are betting on

Read the reports and the 2027 recovery rests on the same few assumptions.

Population growth comes back. BCREA expects that we should see population growth normalize in 2027 after Ottawa moved to cut the inflow of non-permanent residents. CMHC names slower population growth as one reason BC and Ontario will see the weakest price growth in the country.

Confidence returns. BCREA's April report is blunt: In short, the vibes are bad. It forecasts BC unemployment at 6.8% this year, easing to 6.2% in 2027. Buyers who aren't sure about their jobs don't buy houses, whatever the price.

Rates stay put. The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25%, where it has been since October 2025. The next decision is October 28, 2026, then December 9. BCREA assumes a five-year fixed rate averaging 4.6% this year and 4.7% in 2027, so BCREA's forecast doesn't depend on cheaper mortgages.

The listings get absorbed. GVR had 16,394 active listings in September, 24.3% above the 10-year average for the month, and FVREB had 9,763. More buyers in 2027 have to work through that stock before prices can rise much.

Rents matter here because they decide whether investors come back for condos. CMHC has Vancouver's vacancy rate at 3.7% in 2025, more than double the 1.6% of 2024, and only edging down to 3.5% in 2027. Average two-bedroom rent rises 1.5% to 2.3% a year in its forecast. That's not the kind of rent growth that pulls investors back into presales, and it's why I expect condos to stay the weakest part of any recovery.

What sellers are doing right now

Forecasts are published every few months. Listings change every day. Here's the share of active listings on EstateBlock that have already had a price cut, by city, as of October 12, 2026. These are asking prices, not sales, but they're the earliest signal there is: board numbers arrive a month late.

Source: EstateBlock.com live listings, snapshot taken October 12, 2026 (active listings, asking prices).

Between 6% (North Vancouver) and 13% (Mission) of listings have been reduced, and in 14 of these 17 cities the average cut is between 8% and 11%. Sellers are still adjusting down. If 2027 is going to be the year sales pick up, I'd expect this share to fall first, so it's one of the numbers I'll keep checking as these snapshots build up week by week.

What I'd do with these forecasts

Two dates to watch: CREA publishes its next forecast on October 16, 2026, and the Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on October 28. I'll update this page when new forecasts come out. For the month-by-month numbers, see my Greater Vancouver market update, and for the condo side, the Vancouver condo market. If you want to see how prices moved on your own street last year, there's a street-level heat map for that.